Compiling a Lowe-Based Plasma FFB Price Index and Assessing Weight Structure Sensitivity

Nyayu Azzahra Nabila; Faridl Gifari Kertabudi; Meiliana Auranda  Br Siregar; Sylvia  Nurulita; Dimas Haryo  Pamungkas

doi:10.32520/agribisnis.v15i2.5883

Authors

Nyayu Azzahra Nabila IPB University
Faridl Gifari Kertabudi Indonesia Palm Oil Strategic Studies
Meiliana Auranda Br Siregar Indonesia Palm Oil Strategic Studies
Sylvia Nurulita Indonesia Palm Oil Strategic Studies
Dimas Haryo Pamungkas Indonesia Palm Oil Strategic Studies

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.32520/agribisnis.v15i2.5883

Keywords:

fresh fruit bunch prices, Lowe index, oil palm smallholders, price index

Abstract

Officially determined fresh fruit bunch (FFB) prices for plasma smallholders vary across provinces, motivating interprovincial monitoring. This study compiled a Lowe price index for 22 provinces during May 2025–September 2026 and assessed its sensitivity to five alternative weighting scenarios. Monthly provincial prices were arithmetic averages of available daily observations. May 2025 was the price reference period (index = 100), and 2024 crude palm oil (CPO) production from smallholder plantations served as a quantity proxy because plasma FFB production data were unavailable in the dataset. Mean Absolute Percentage Deviation (MAPD) measured differences in index values; Total Variation Distance (TVD) measured differences in provincial weight distributions. The index reached a low of 94.99 in June 2025, a high of 114.19 in April 2026, and 114.16 in September 2026, representing a 14.16% increase from May 2025. MAPD ranged from 0.0039% to 0.0846%, while TVD ranged from 0.46% to 4.99%. The study contributes an interprovincial indicator of officially determined plasma FFB price changes and evidence of limited sensitivity to the weighting scenarios examined. However, CPO-based weights may not represent the plasma FFB production structure, and the index does not measure actual transaction prices or smallholder income.

References

Abdul, I., Wulan Sari, D., Haryanto, T., & Win, T. (2022). Analysis of factors affecting the technical inefficiency on Indonesian palm oil plantation. Scientific Reports, 12(1), Article 3381. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-07113-7

Białek, J., & Berȩsewicz, M. (2021). Scanner data in inflation measurement: From raw data to price indices. Statistical Journal of the IAOS, 37(4), 1315–1336. https://doi.org/10.3233/SJI-210816

Chrisendo, D., Siregar, H., & Qaim, M. (2022). Oil palm cultivation improves living standards and human capital formation in smallholder farm households. World Development, 159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.106034

Dalheimer, B., Kubitza, C., & Brümmer, B. (2022). Technical efficiency and farmland expansion: Evidence from oil palm smallholders in Indonesia. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 104(4), 1364–1387. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12267

Hendrawan, D., Chrisendo, D., & Musshoff, O. (2024). Strengthening oil palm smallholder farmers’ resilience to future industrial challenges. Scientific Reports, 14(1), Article 12105. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-62426-z

Herdiyanti, Y., & Sukiyono, K. (2023). Forecasting Of Palm Oil Fruit Fresh Bunches (FFB) Prices in National and Bengkulu Province: ARIMA Model Application. Agrisocionomics, 7(1), 194–202. https://doi.org/10.14710/agrisocionomics.v7i1.14730

Herdiyanti, Y., Sukiyono, K., & Irawan, A. (2023). Volatility and Transmission of Palm Oil Price in The Province of North Sumatera and Bengkulu Province. International Journal of Oil Palm, 6(1), 9–19. https://doi.org/10.35876/ijop.v6i1.87

Herzberg, J., Knetsch, T. A., Schwind, P., & Weinand, S. (2023). Quantifying Bias and Inaccuracy of Upper-Level Aggregation in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for Germany and the Euro Area. Review of Income and Wealth, 69(3), 581–605. https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12602

International Labour Organization, International Monetary Fund, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Statistical Office of the European Union, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, & World Bank. (2020). Consumer price index manual: Concepts and methods.

International Monetary Fund. (2004). Producer price index manual: Theory and practice.

Kartawinata, M., Herawan, J. E., Komala, A., Susilo, Y. S., Tendenan, V., & Brata, A. G. (2026). Price transmission in Indonesia’s CPO chain: An ARDL-UECM assessment. Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia, 15(1), 56–74. https://doi.org/10.52813/jei.v15i1.788

Kementerian Pertanian Republik Indonesia. (2024). Peraturan Menteri Pertanian Republik Indonesia Nomor 13 Tahun 2024 tentang Pembelian Tandan Buah Segar Kelapa Sawit Produksi Pekebun Mitra.

Kementerian Pertanian Republik Indonesia. (2025). Analisis Kinerja Perdagangan Komoditas Kelapa Sawit Tahun 2025.

Mehraban, N., Kubitza, C., Alamsyah, Z., & Qaim, M. (2021). Oil palm cultivation, household welfare, and exposure to economic risk in the Indonesian small farm sector. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 72(3), 901–915. https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.12433

Melindah, D., & Wulan, E. R. (2024). Penggunaan Indeks Harga dalam Menganalisis Pergerakan Harga Komoditas Pangan di Indonesia Periode 2017-2023. EKALAYA : Jurnal Ekonomi Akuntansi, 2(4), 352–362. https://doi.org/10.59966/ekalaya.v2i4.1471

Nesti, L., Nadiyah, K., & Fudholi, A. (2026). Price Transmission in The Supply Chain of Independent Oil Palm Smallholders in West Sumatera, Indonesia: A Case Study in Dharmasraya District. Journal of Oil Palm Research, 38(1), 99–116. https://doi.org/10.21894/jopr.2025.0005

Rabiu, I., Salim, N., Nasser, M., Da’u, A., Elfadil Eisa, T. A., & Elneel Dalam, M. E. (2023). Drift Detection Method Using Distance Measures and Windowing Schemes for Sentiment Classification. Computers, Materials and Continua, 74(3), 6001–6017. https://doi.org/10.32604/cmc.2023.035221

Reich, C. E., Ölkers, T., Bonke, V., & Musshoff, O. (2026). Beyond the Ban—Shedding Light on Smallholders’ Price Vulnerability in Indonesia’s Palm Oil Industry. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 48(3), 653–678. https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.70040

Ruml, A., Chrisendo, D., Iddrisu, A. M., Karakara, A. A., Nuryartono, N., Osabuohien, E., & Lay, J. (2022). Smallholders in agro-industrial production: Lessons for rural development from a comparative analysis of Ghana’s and Indonesia’s oil palm sectors. Land Use Policy, 119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.106196

Syahputra, A. R., Nurkhoiry, R., Amalia, R., & Nasution, Z. P. S. (2024). Risiko Produksi dan Pendapatan Pekebun Kelapa Sawit Rakyat Bersertifikasi dan Nonsertifikasi RSPO. Jurnal Penelitian Kelapa Sawit, 32(3), 164–175. https://doi.org/10.22302/iopri.jur.jpks.v32i3.265

Varwasih, M. W., Darjanto, A., & Hidayat, N. K. (2023). Market Integration of Fresh Fruit Bunches (FFB) Independent Smallholders of PalmOil in Jambi Province-Indonesia with International Crude PalmOil (CPO). Agro Bali: Agricultural Journal, 6(3), 793–805. https://doi.org/10.37637/ab.v6i3.1461

Woittiez, L. S., Slingerland, M., Noordwijk, M. van, Silalahi, A. J., Heerwaarden, J. van, & Giller, K. E. (2024). People, Palms, and Productivity: Testing Better Management Practices in Indonesian Smallholder Oil Palm Plantations. Agriculture, 14(9), Article 1626. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture14091626

Zhafira, J., Hakim, ⁠D. B., & Falatehan, F. (2026). Structural Break Analysis and Price Transmission of Bulk Cooking Oil in the Indonesian Palm Oil Agribusiness System. Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA, 12(1), 537–550. https://doi.org/10.29303/jppipa.v12i1.13719